The megatrends comprise the platform Vision for the Future of Brazilian Agriculture. Some of its features include agrodigital systems, investments in the biorevolution, striving for food traceability for safety and reliability, the growth of the bioinput industry to the detriment of the use of agrochemicals, and the consolidation of payments for environmental services. With the purpose of anticipating changes in Brazilian agriculture and preparing decision-makers for what is to come, in the week of its 49th anniversary, Embrapa will launch the platform named Vision for the Future of Brazilian Agriculture.” The platform features eight megatrends that are based on foresight studies by the company's Strategic Intelligence System, which were established after consultations with over 300 experts and leaders in Brazilian agriculture, analyses of 126 strategic documents, and discussions in 37 technical workshops “Our Strategic Intelligence team has been dedicated to identifying and studying trends, and several are already in the process of being consolatidated, while their risks or opportunities are missed by many. We organized the signals and trends by the widest consensus in a single platform. In addition to the eight megatrends, the study offers information that has already been consolidated in the world of science, and while some of which is universal, it still needs to be better communicated due to potential impacts on agriculture, business, people and life on the planet,” explains Celso Moretti, president of Embrapa “This foresight study will inform the corporate Master Plan (PDE, from the acronym in Portuguese) in the course of the upcoming years, as the major guidelines established by the Vision for the Future of Brazilian Agriculture point to important elements for Embrapa's work in research and development,” he added. Eight megatrends for the next 20 years The eight megatrends point to a set of challenges to have agriculture remain competitive and sustainable in the long run. The first is Sustainability. “Lower carbon footprint, water conservation, maintenance of soil nutrients, controlled use of antimicrobial and and other agrochemicals, added value for agro-environmental services, reduced losses and waste, and suitable conditions for jobs and income in the fields” are the main requirements stipulated by the megatrends, Moretti explains. “Sustainability will be a premise,” he adds. Concepts like Bioeconomy combined with the Circular Economy and the Green Economy have grown their scope in the megatrends identified by Embrapa, and indicate the increasing need for investment in the production of biological inputs (biofertilizers and biopesticides), for instance. Adopting procedures like the traceability of the entire production process in a given chain, adding value to organic products for the food market, meeting animal welfare standards, promoting the growth of the bioinput industry to the detriment of products from fossil sources, and implementing payment for environmental services should guide agribusiness in the coming years. Consumption of traceable foods and increased demand for plant-based foods The world increasingly aims to consume value-added products, such as plant-based ones and goods produced through a traceability process that ranges from sowing to their arrival on market shelves. Veganism and flexitarianism (the reduction but not full suppression of meat consumption) are global trends. They are associated with the search for foods with less sugar and sodium contents, and the value appreciation of the links between food, tourism and gastronomy, especially with products stemming from species that are native to Brazilian biomes. “More and more buyers and stakeholders will participate in agricultural decision-making processes, and define recommendations and instructions to discipline this relationship both in domestic and foreign markets,” Moretti stated, highlighting the importance of food traceability, a technology that has already been incorporated by the agricultural sector. The future and present of the sector are digital An important megatrend for Brazilian agriculture consists in agrodigital systems, including artificial intelligence, machine learning, the Internet of Things, augmented reality, robotics, 3D and 4D printing, connectivity, big data and quantum computing. The digital transformation has also affected rural areas and paved the way for previously unimaginable new markets and opportunities. “However, connectivity in Brazil still is a major challenge. Without it, the gap between the most equipped farmers and those with hindered access will grow even further, also increasing rural poverty,” the study points out. “We need to advance and join agritechs in the use of such solutions, but the fact is that Brazil and the rest of the world will be immersed in the digital world. And there is a major challenge that Brazil needs to overcome: how can we advance in digital agriculture if 76% of our properties do not have connectivity yet?” Moretti asks. Another megatrend that is as important as Agrodigital systems is the one that points that Brazil needs to foster the biorevolution by investing in research and use of advanced biotechnology techniques, such as plant and animal gene editing and the development of biomolecules, among others, to create agricultural systems that are more resilient and adapted to water scarcity, for instance, as well as more productive and resistant animal breeds. For that purpose, they need to integrate knowledge and technologies and best practices in environmental, social, and governance (ESG) agenda. “At the end of last year, our scientists developed the first sugarcanes resulting from gene editing. They are the Flex I and Flex II sugarcane varieties, which have higher cell wall digestibility and higher sucrose concentration in their plant tissue, which in turn will enable the production of higher quality bioethanol and allow the bagasse to be better used in animal diets,” Moretti exemplified as he discussed the importance of the biorevolution to the country. Climate Change This is another important megatrend featured in the study. The possibility of a temperature rise of 1.5º C in the coming years - considering the UN's Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 13 - entails the need for investment in research and development of technologies associated with more climate-resilient production systems. Hence the Vision for the Future of Brazilian Agriculture platform stresses the importance of investing in public policy aimed at adapting Brazil’s tropical agriculture to rising global temperatures, so as to allow it to compete with countries located in temperate regions (especially more developed ones), since due to climate change they may come to have better technologies and climate conditions . Technological intensification and concentration of production The growth in exports due to access to new international markets has been occurring simultaneously with a concentration in the main products of the Brazilian export basket. The concentration of production has also increased, in light of major changes in producing regions. The rural-to-urban migration of workers will persist, as will progressive automation, intensive capitalization and demand for professionals with more training. Production sites have moved from Brazil's South-Southeast to the Midwest and North, raising concerns about impacts on the Amazon and Cerrado biomes. The challenges are now related to the concentration of production and income in the hands of a few farmers, and how to have smallholders and traditional peoples and communities keep working in agriculture. “A stable income for smallholders will depend on technological innovation, especially alternatives for value aggregation, such as agrotourism, gastronomy, and niche markets, in addition to associativism, public policy and digital inclusion,” the study asserts. New concepts to be consolidated In addition to the eight megatrends, the platform also reports on important concepts that should become consolidated in Brazil in the near future, which include: one health; the circular economy; fair trade; food loss and food waste reduction; vegetarianism, veganism and flexitarianism; and short food supply chains. Embrapa has adopted FAO's concept “One Health", an indicator to explain the trend of integrating different areas and teams to look for answers to the most relevant problems in society and the environment, especially after the occurrence of the SARS-CoV-2 global pandemic. “A collaborative, multisectoral and transdisciplinary approach at local, regional, national and global levels, with the goal of achieving ideal health targets, in recognition of the interconnections between people, animals, plants and their shared environment,” the Embrapa study highlights. Access the Vision for the Future platform on www.embrapa.br/visao-de-futuro