What are the prospects for Brazil's ethanol exports by 2031? In a paper published in the journal Revista de Política Agrícola, a team from Embrapa Territorial points to a trend of a gradual increase, an average rate of 1.7% a year. The authors consider that the prospect of growth is relatively modest. Tax and non-tax barriers that hinder the conversion of such biofuel into a commodity stop Brazilian exports from being bigger. During the 26th UN Climate Change Conference (COP-26), Brazil promised to halve greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and increase the share of renewable energy sources in its energy mix to at least 45% by 2030. In order to meet such target, one of the strategies is to increase ethanol production to 50 billion liters a year, which has an impact on the product's export scenarios. “The perspectives for ethanol exports cross the COP-26 targets, due to the balance between production and consumption and the standardization of commodities”, states analyst Daniela Tatiane de Souza, from Embrapa Territorial, one of the authors of the paper. In 2021, the domestic production reached nearly 30 billion liters, while consumption hit 27.4 billion liters. Production would need to grow about 80% to have Brazil meet the commitment to COP-26. Turning ethanol into commodity could favor negotiations in futures markets, with higher profitability. For that purpose, the product would nevertheless need to be standardized, as it is generated in over 400 ethanol production plants nowadays. One of the hindrances to production increases is the plants' production capacity, which is currently close to their limit. “We will need more production plants”, researcher José Dilcio Rocha, another author of the paper, asserts. He recalls that there could also be demand for ethanol as a raw material for other products, such as aviation biokerosene. The analysis performed at Embrapa Territorial considered premises and targets outlined for the year 2021 by the Brazilian Energy Research Corporation (EPE). The work also considered market information supplied by the Union of the Sugarcane and Bioenergy Industry (Unica) and technical factors on sugarcane conversion into ethanol by São Paulo State Council of Sugarcane, Sugar and Ethanol Producers(Consecana). Click here to read the paper.