Autoria: SIMÕES, M.; FERRAZ, R.; PEREIRA, S.; ALANIZ, N.; ALVEZ, A.

Resumo: Large-scale and high-intensity land use changes (LUC) are intrinsically related to the loss of biodiversity, and decreased integrity of natural systems that help maintain ecosystem services (ES). Landscape-scale patterns of land use (LU) can be correlated with different levels of ecosystem integrity (EI) and consequently with the potential ES provision. Once the relations between LU patterns and EI/ES are established it is possible to predict future environmental services provision considering different LUC scenarios. The objective of this work is to present a methodological approach and preliminary results of the prediction of future impacts on ES based on LUC scenarios for the Brazilian Amazon. The methodological approach used was to integrate: (i) Ecosystem Integrity Spatial Model (EISM) based on Bayesian probabilistic distribution of evidences using a Remote Sensing dataset. The validation was based on knowledge and field controls; (ii) Correlation of EISM and ES Models: (iia) Evapotranspiration Fluxes (ET) - MODIS/MOD16; (iib) Aboveground Carbon Stocks Spatial Model (WHRC); and (iii) Amazon legal region LUC-SSPs scenarios (Adapted from the IPCC-SSPs) - Clue Model (1 km2 pixel; projected for 2050). The preliminary results were promising and showed the decrease of ecosystem integrity related with each LUC scenario considered, allowing estimates of the impacts on the ecosystem services studied: water fluxes (ET) and aboveground carbon stocks. This work is part of ROBIN Project (EU- FP7Edict.ENV.2011.2.1.4-1).

Ano de publicação: 2015

Tipo de publicação: Resumo em anais e proceedings

Unidade: Embrapa Solos

Palavras-chave: Amazônia brasileira, Mudanças no uso da terra, Serviços ecossistêmicos