Autoria: HEINEMANN, A. B.; SILVA, S. C. da; STONE, L. F.; MORAES, A. da C.

Resumo: Reductions in agricultural productivity with consequences for food security associated to climate change are expected in the absence of adaptation. For common beans, across South America, is projected a decrease in the climatic suitability, with heat and drought stresses being the key drivers for such suitability reduction. This study hypothesize that climatic and atmospheric changes for common beans growing period at rainfed wet growing season in Goiás State are likely to alter the yield by 2030. We considered as historic period from 1980 to 2005 and four representative concentration pathways (RCP - 2.6 and 8.5) for the near future from 2020 to 2045. For assessing the common bean yields we applied the CSM-CROPGRO-DRY BEAN model, calibrated and validated for cultivar Pérola. The climate change impacts on average simulated yield ranged from -267 to 272 and -439 to 314.2 kg ha-1 for RCP 2.6 and 8.5.

Ano de publicação: 2017

Tipo de publicação: Artigo em anais e proceedings

Unidade: Embrapa Arroz e Feijão

Palavras-chave: Feijão, Modelo de circulação global, Modelo de simulação, Phaseolus vulgaris