Autoria: ASSAD, E. D.; ZANATTA, J. A.; RACHWAL, M. F. G.; PUGLIERO, V. S.; ZANNETTI, M. R.; PAVÃO, E. de M.; ASSAD, M. L. R. C. L.; VICTORIA, D. de C.; NAKAI, A. M.; MONTEIRO, J. E. B. de A.; BORDRON, B.; HOLLER, W. A.

Resumo: Climate change may mean significant changes in crop productivity, including for planted forests, due to changes in climatic parameters. These impacts may be more intense in some regions of the country. Scientific investigation based on field data obtained over the long term and projected scenarios are important tools for planning and decision making that can help decrease vulnerability and risk for the forest sector in the near future. Along these lines, this study (which was conducted with support from Klabin S.A., a forest-based company) indicates changes that may be on the horizon, discusses climatic behavior in some regions of Brazil which are important centers for eucalyptus production, and projects impacts on productivity and carbon emissions/removal capacity in eucalyptus forests within the scenario of climate change. A highlight of this study is the use of the HadGEM2-ES model to predict rainfall, average temperature, evapotranspiration, water deficit, frost events, and minimum temperature at 10-year intervals until 2040. This is a differential, since other studies consider longer intervals. The study indicates climatic risk and the resulting impact on eucalyptus production in southern Brazil. However, detailed investigation in the municipalities of Itapetininga, Telêmaco Borba, and Otacílio Costa points to variations in the vulnerability of these environments. The study also examines the potential of these eucalyptus forests to accumulate carbon, indicating how and to what extent this function may be affected. Predicting potential changes is an intelligent way to prepare for and even ameliorate the impacts of climate change, thus making it possible to maintain the potential for the region and eucalyptus forests to make significant contributions to environmental quality and reaffirm the opportunities that are present for the forest sector within the context of the green economy and decarbonization of the economy.

Ano de publicação: 2022

Tipo de publicação: Livros

Unidade: Embrapa Florestas

Palavras-chave: Carbon, Carbono, Climate change, Eucalipto, Eucalyptus, Forest soils, Mudança Climática, Planio florestal, Planted forest, Plantio florestal, Solo Florestal