Autoria: OLIVEIRA, B. S.; HAMADA, E.; LANA, J. T. de O.

Resumo: The reality of global climate changes creates the necessity of predicting how will be the climatic scenario in our planet and how it will affect the economic activities in the future. For some climatic variables the global climate models projections are similar, as in the case of temperature. But in the case of rainfall it does not happen, once the global climate models show different projections. This study aims to evaluate the rainfall projections tendency for Brazil and its regions according to global climate models, using GIS Idrisi 32. Fifteen global models were performed to compare the projection of future precipitation (2071 - 2100) of the emission scenario A2 of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report with reference period data (1961 - 1990) of the Climate Research Unit (C.R.U). The results showed global climate models behavior differently for each brazilian region, indicating a tendency of rainfall increase in certain geographic areas and decrease in others. During the winter months there is a tendency of rainfall decrease, while during summer the tendency is the increase of rainfall, according to the global models evaluated. The results can be used as a base for the knowledge of global climate models behavior in future scenarios.

Ano de publicação: 2011

Tipo de publicação: Artigo em anais e proceedings

Unidade: Embrapa Meio Ambiente

Palavras-chave: Geoprocessamento, Modelos climáticos, Precipitation, Precipitação pluvial, SIG