The explosion of the covid-19 pandemic, involving many of the world’s largest economies, is progressively shifting megatrends to food systems. The pace of deployment of technologies such as the Internet of Things (IoT), automation and robotics, artificial intelligence and digital applications has accelerated, and they are already a reality in agricultural production. The emergence of e-commerce platforms to facilitate transactions between farmers and final consumers is another innovation that tends to revolutionize the logistics and marketing segments, as a result of social isolation and new health standards. Trends that emerged during the pandemic are likely to influence the development of consumer sectors in the post-covid-19 era. It is also worth noting the growing search for organic products; the increase in spending on alternative proteins; consumer interest in vitamins and dietary supplements; the increase in the use of applications for the delivery of prepared foods, due to the closing of restaurants and fast food chains. On the other hand, the demand for more sophisticated foods called “premium”, such as “special” cuts of beef, is expected to suffer a sharp decrease. Among the reasons are the global economic slowdown, rising unemployment, decreasing per capita income and new consumption habits, due to numerous post-pandemic factors. This and other information is in the study “Segurança alimentar pós-covid-19: megatendências dos sistemas alimentares globais” (Post-covid-19 food security: megatrends of global food systems), prepared by the Secretariat of Intelligence and Strategic Relations (Sire). The paper analyzes the main trends in global food systems for the next 20-30 years, after the outbreak of the pandemic, and their reflexes in increasing the imbalance in food security “A series of economic and social events, which occurred in 2020, as a result of the global explosion of the covid-19 pandemic, involving many of the largest economies, progressively changed the internal and external dynamics of many of these countries in a more protectionist and nationalist. Although it is too early to predict, with any degree of conviction, what the world will be like after the pandemic, a review of the sectoral and macroeconomic megatrends indicates that some can be expanded and others accelerated ”, highlights the study’s author, researcher Mário Seixas. The work was prepared based on technical information and reports from international organizations and risk agencies, with emphasis on the Independent Science and Partnership Council of the International Agricultural Research Council (CGIAR), the Global Panel on Agriculture and Food Systems (Global Panel), Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research, owned by the risk agency Fitch Ratings, and reports published by RaboResearch, Food and Agribusiness, a department of RaboBank. “Lockdown and social distance have contributed to several simultaneous shocks across the global food system. Some governments closed formal and informal food outlets and severely restricted the movement of citizens, while food production and processing, transportation, commerce and retail were profoundly affected, ”says Seixas. According to data from the Global Panel, before the pandemic, 135 million people were hungry in the world. However, from February to June alone, there was an estimated increase of about 45 million people, according to the warning from the United Nations World Food Program. According to the agency, by the end of the year, 265 million people may face acute food insecurity because of the pandemic. Food supply chains have also been disrupted. Governments closed restaurants and restricted the presence of street food vendors, food retailers and road transport, with the aim of limiting the spread of infections. “Another effect of the pandemic was a shift in demand for specific foods. Covid-19 has changed, at least temporarily, some consumer habits, particularly where and how to eat. The implications in the short and medium term are clear: restaurants and out-of-home options are likely to recover more slowly than initially expected, ”says Seixas. Interface between human health, technologies and food systems Bioeconomics, biotechnology, genetic resources and hyperconnectivity, which are essential in accelerating the adoption of precision agriculture – with the consequent increases in productivity, economies of scale and readjustment of the use of agricultural labor –, are some of the factors that will influence agriculture and food systems. In this direction, the Embrapa study indicates the consolidation of eight global megatrends for the coming years, with a horizon for completion by 2050. For Seixas, the most important megatrend is the interface between human health, technologies and food systems. According to him, scientific advances and improved living standards contribute to increasing people’s longevity, reducing the lethality of infectious diseases. However, obesity, malnutrition, resistance to diseases, bacteria and microbes will put increasing pressure towards furthering knowledge on human health. In addition, it is also necessary to consider cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, cancer and depression combined with pollution; and reactive medicine instead of preventive medicine. “For this reason, consumers and their choices are important factors in farmers' decision-making, with possible impacts on food and nutritional security, on the environment and on the financial sustainability of global agribusiness”, says the researcher. Another megatrend concerns new transformative trends in the global food system: awareness of health aspects and preference for niche products, combined with the growing influence of technology, tend to transform the food industry in multiple ways. “Additional efforts to reduce food loss and waste are urgently needed,” adds Seixas. The study predicts that Brazil, the United States and some European countries will increase their production and food surpluses in the coming years. They will continue to be the most important agricultural suppliers on the international stage. Asia, Africa and some Latin American countries (including Mexico), although with significant increases in production over a ten-year horizon, may become more vulnerable in terms of food security, due to the strong growth in local food consumption and the precarious phytosanitary control. Technological innovations The innovations are also in the set of megatrends pointed out by the study. Advances in genetics, nanotechnology, automation, robotics and artificial intelligence and other emerging technologies are accelerating. Hyperconnectivity, the internet of things, augmented reality and collective intelligence systems, combined with reduced costs of implementing new technologies, are transforming entire systems of production, management and governance. Another megatrend is the rise of “senior” consumers, who are older. The global population will expand by almost 2 billion in the next decades until 2050. “This will essentially create a consumer segment, which will require different products and marketing and branding strategies for companies targeting this new consumer”, details Seixas. On the other hand, special attention is dedicated to future generations and their propensity to accept and consume novelties in food. With an estimated increase in the world population to 9.8 billion in 2050, the issue of food scarcity and food security becomes strategic and critical. Therefore, from the point of view of consumption, the legalization and acceptance of GM foods can contribute to food security. According to the international agencies that subsidized the study, there is scientific agreement that foods derived from GM crops do not pose a greater risk to human health. However, younger consumers will be more critical of the consumption of these foods. General acceptance in developed markets is not expected before 2050, especially in the European Union, where fragmented interests make political decision more difficult. “In this sense, the trend towards non-traditional foods, such as synthetic meat, will consolidate among young people. More investments will emerge as consumer preferences progressively shift to diets rich in non-animal protein and other alternatives, ”explains Seixas, highlighting a recent study by Fitch Solutions. According to the agency, it is estimated that, by 2050, several proteins grown in laboratories will be available and will be incorporated into diets. “Over the next 30 years, food and beverage companies will increasingly invest in cellular proteins, as they provide an attractive solution to environmental and animal welfare concerns, in addition to reducing food insecurity,” says Fitch. This year’s agency report identified technology companies that have already started investing in laboratory-grown meat, with highlights for Memphis Meats (USA), Aleph Farms (Israel), HigherSteaks (United Kingdom), Mosa Meat (Netherlands) and Meatable ( Netherlands), all competing to make the product marketable. Although high production costs remain a fundamental barrier, in the medium and long terms, a reduction in these values is estimated. E-commerce and apps In the scope of e-commerce and apps, a megatrend that will shape the way retailers operate, the study identified three important developments for the next 30 years: (a) drones: food deliveries by drones will significantly reduce delivery times, especially in large metropolitan areas and remote regions; (b) autonomous vehicles: the potential for combining autonomous vehicles with drones has the potential to significantly shorten delivery times; (c) restaurants dedicated to the delivery of finished products, through apps, and do not open to the public. Despite technological advances and concern for food security, climate change and environmental degradation remain a strong megatrend. For risk agencies, “climate change is irreversible and, even if all emissions from human activities were stopped, the climate would continue to change”. Agtechs The study identified a strong presence of agtechs in the coming years, as a basis for the innovation and evolution of agricultural production. The main advances are estimated to come from new automation and robotics technologies, hyperconnectivity and internet access, new technologies used in plant and animal breeding, more advanced resource management systems and a better understanding of the food-consumption relationship -human health. “The use of agtechs can benefit several operations and businesses in the production process, such as rural producers and technology service providers to the sector,” explains Seixas. According to the researcher, the emerging markets, the vast majority dependent on qualified labor, will have different styles of adoption of agtech. “Asia will stand out in terms of adoption due to their strong ICT fundamentals. China will adopt agtech over a five-year horizon, helped by active public support. In Latin America, Brazil and Argentina will tend to stand out, mainly due to the strength and international competitiveness of private agribusiness and hyperconnectivity ”, he concludes. The study “Post-covid-19 food security: megatrends in global food systems” is part of Embrapa’s Strategic Dialogues series and is part of the Agropensa System. Learn more about the topic here Translation: The Food Challenge, edited by Mariana Medeiros